Today’s report focuses on a super extensive Bitcoin Backtest report. We took a look at more than 15 trading signals and strategies. For each of them, we performed an extensive backtest with data from the last three years — and the results were surprising.
However, we didn’t stop and performed the backtest on three different timeframes: the daily chart, the hourly chart, and the 15-minute chart timeframe. So get ready to dive into extensive data, thoroughly assessed results, and valuable insights.
A Quick Summary
If you don’t have time to read through the complete Bitcoin Backtest Report, we put together a quick summary.
Hyper Scalper Most Successful Strategy
The Hyper Scalper trading strategy shows an exceptional success rate for all analyzed timeframes. Although the number of trades on the daily chart is low, it might be worse considering this strategy.
Timeframe Not As Essential As Expected
When we started working on the Bitcoin Backtest Report we expected huge differences between the timeframe. More precisely, we expected better results in the long-term timeframe and worse results in the lower timeframe. However, the difference between the timeframes is definitely not as significant as expected.
Want some more backtest analyses? Check this out:
Ethereum Backtest — The Most Extensive Analysis!
XRP Backtest Report (15+ Ripple Trading Strategies & Signals)
Litecoin (LTC) Backtest Report (15+ Trading Strategies)
Bitcoin Backtest Report — Tradings Strategies & Signals — Daily Chart
Here are the key takeaways from the daily chart:
- Overall, five trading signals/strategies show a success rate of more than 75%.
- We can find three strategies with a success rate of 100% — however, the results are based on a low number of signals and, therefore, have to be handled cautiously.
- The majority of the signals show a performance between 55% and 65%.
| Signal | Detected Signals | Success Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX | 3 | 100.0 |
| Hyper Scalper Buy | 1 | 100.0 |
| Hyper Scalper Sell | 1 | 100.0 |
| Power Scalper Buy | 19 | 80.53 |
| EMA Bullish Crossover | 16 | 75.0 |
| RSI Overbought | 41 | 68.29 |
| MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX | 27 | 66.67 |
| Parabolic Trader Sell | 12 | 66.67 |
| Big Extender Buy | 24 | 66.67 |
| RSI Overbought + ADX | 35 | 65.71 |
| Bollinger Stochastic Buy | 43 | 65.12 |
| Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX | 33 | 63.64 |
| EMA Strategy Buy | 22 | 63.64 |
| Parabolic Trader Buy | 23 | 60.87 |
| Bollinger Bands Buy | 51 | 60.78 |
| MACD Bullish Crossover | 48 | 60.42 |
| RSI Oversold + ADX | 10 | 60.0 |
| Power Scalper Sell | 53 | 56.6 |
| EMA Bearish Crossover | 16 | 56.25 |
| Bollinger Bands Sell + ADX | 47 | 55.32 |
| EMA Strategy Sell | 22 | 54.55 |
| MACD Bearish Crossover | 48 | 52.08 |
| MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX | 24 | 50.0 |
| RSI Oversold | 14 | 50.0 |
| EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX | 4 | 50.0 |
| Bollinger Bands Sell | 88 | 50.0 |
| Bollinger Stochastic Sell | 93 | 46.24 |
| Big Extender Sell | 7 | 42.86 |
| Tri Trendmaster Buy | 0 | 24.53 |
| Tri Trendmster Sell | 0 | 24.53 |
Bitcoin Backtest Report — Tradings Strategies & Signals — Hourly Chart
Here are the most important results of the Bitcoin Backtest Report for the hourly chart:
- Tri Trendmast and Hyper Scalper are the top-performing trading strategies. However, the Tri Trendmaster results are based on a minimal number of trade signals. Therefore, the results should be handled with caution.
- More than half of the trading signals and strategies show a less than 60% success rate.
| Signal | Detected Signals | Success Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tri Trendmaster Buy | 1 | 100.0 |
| Tri Trendmster Sell | 2 | 100.0 |
| Hyper Scalper Buy | 19 | 89.47 |
| Hyper Scalper Sell | 25 | 76.0 |
| Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX | 274 | 65.33 |
| Bollinger Stochastic Buy | 363 | 64.19 |
| MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX | 212 | 63.68 |
| Bollinger Bands Buy | 594 | 63.3 |
| Power Scalper Buy | 903 | 61.68 |
| Big Extender Buy | 90 | 60.0 |
| RSI Overbought + ADX | 135 | 58.52 |
| RSI Overbought | 202 | 57.92 |
| Bollinger Bands Sell + ADX | 312 | 57.05 |
| Bollinger Bands Sell | 657 | 56.93 |
| Parabolic Trader Buy | 192 | 56.77 |
| Bollinger Stochastic Sell | 545 | 55.6 |
| MACD Bullish Crossover | 509 | 55.01 |
| EMA Strategy Buy | 269 | 54.28 |
| Power Scalper Sell | 602 | 53.65 |
| EMA Bearish Crossover | 177 | 52.54 |
| RSI Oversold + ADX | 128 | 51.56 |
| Parabolic Trader Sell | 163 | 51.53 |
| RSI Oversold | 183 | 51.37 |
| EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX | 39 | 51.28 |
| EMA Bullish Crossover | 176 | 51.14 |
| MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX | 217 | 50.69 |
| MACD Bearish Crossover | 510 | 50.59 |
| Big Extender Sell | 103 | 50.49 |
| EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX | 36 | 50.0 |
| EMA Strategy Sell | 264 | 49.24 |
Bitcoin Backtest Report — Tradings Strategies & Signals — 15-Minute Chart
Here are the most essential results of our Bitcoin Backtest Report on the 15M Chart:
- It is incredible that even on the 15M chart (almost), four trading strategies achieved more than 80% success rates. Again, the Tri Trendmaster and Hyper Scalper lead the fields.
- More importantly, the Hyper Scalper success rates are based on almost 100 trading signals for buying and selling each. Therefore, it makes this strategy a valid approach in this low timeframe.
- Conversely, most (more than two-thirds) of the trade signals showed results below 60% or even below 50%.
| Signal | Detected Signals | Succcess Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tri Trendmster Sell | 7 | 85.71 |
| Hyper Scalper Buy | 63 | 84.13 |
| Tri Trendmaster Buy | 6 | 83.33 |
| Hyper Scalper Sell | 84 | 79.76 |
| EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX | 109 | 66.97 |
| Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX | 1068 | 62.83 |
| Bollinger Stochastic Buy | 1483 | 61.56 |
| Bollinger Bands Buy | 2383 | 60.81 |
| Bollinger Bands Sell | 2337 | 59.44 |
| Bollinger Bands Sell + ADX | 1015 | 59.21 |
| Bollinger Stochastic Sell | 1983 | 57.64 |
| MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX | 858 | 55.36 |
| EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX | 108 | 54.63 |
| Big Extender Buy | 269 | 54.28 |
| MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX | 790 | 54.05 |
| Power Scalper Buy | 2289 | 53.78 |
| EMA Bullish Crossover | 694 | 53.75 |
| RSI Overbought + ADX | 440 | 53.41 |
| Parabolic Trader Buy | 725 | 53.38 |
| EMA Strategy Buy | 1172 | 53.33 |
| MACD Bullish Crossover | 2049 | 52.71 |
| RSI Overbought | 640 | 52.03 |
| MACD Bearish Crossover | 2049 | 50.51 |
| Power Scalper Sell | 1699 | 50.21 |
| EMA Bearish Crossover | 693 | 49.64 |
| EMA Strategy Sell | 1175 | 49.36 |
| Parabolic Trader Sell | 746 | 47.99 |
| Big Extender Sell | 289 | 47.75 |
| RSI Oversold | 571 | 46.94 |
| RSI Oversold + ADX | 414 | 46.86 |
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