Crypto Backtest: Transforming Challenges into Opportunities
When I first ventured into cryptocurrency trading, one of the most daunting challenges I faced was accessing high-quality crypto backtest data. It was a labyrinthine task that often left me, and undoubtedly many others, in a state of uncertainty and guesswork.
Recognizing this pervasive issue, I set out on a mission with CryptoKnowledge – not just to navigate these murky waters myself but to light a path for others, especially new traders. Today, I’m excited to share a comprehensive overview of a range of trading strategies and their backtesting results. This post isn’t just a showcase of data; it’s a beacon for all traders seeking clarity and confidence in their crypto trading journey. Ready? Let’s dive into some crypto backtests!
Table of Contents
Crypto Backtest: What And How We Tested?
Crypto Backtest Results: A Diverse Spectrum of Success Rates
A Comprehensive Assessment Of The Results
Crypto Backtest: What And How We Tested?
Before we dive into the results, it is essential to understand what we tested and how we approached our backtest. In this context, it is worth mentioning that there isn’t a standardized approach to backtesting. Conversely, backtesting includes using different parameters, trial and error, and hundreds of repetitions.
However, we defined a set of variables for this crypto backtest article to get comparable results. Nevertheless, it is essential to understand that the results can differ widely when changing parameters. Moreover, it is necessary to comprehend that backtests assess the past — accordingly, the results do not predict the future!
Crypto Backtest — What We Tested
For this crypto backtest, we used almost 200 crypto tokens (196, to be precise). All of the tokens are available in our CryptoKnowledge app. The crypto tokens used range from the big players, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, to small caps and meme coins. We used historical data of up to two years, if available, depending on the crypto token.
We tested all tokens according to 16 trading signals/strategies. Again, these trading signals/strategies are all available in the CryptKnowledge app. Here’s a short overview of the tested signals/strategies. If you want to know more about each strategy, check out the Knowledge space in our app.
Single Indicators
Here are the single indicators we used for our crypto backtest:
- MACD Signal (Bullish Crossover, Bearish Crossover)
- RSI Signal (Oversold and Overbought)
- Bollinger Bands (Buy and Sell Signal)
- EMA Crossover (Short crosses above long-term EMA and vice versa)
Advanced Indicators
On top of the single indicators, we also tested them enriched by the ADX.
- MACD Signal + ADX (Bullish and Bearish Crossover supported by an ADX >30)
- RSI + ADX (Oversold and Overbought supported by an ADX >30)
- Bollinger Bands + ADX
- EMA Crossover + ADX
Strategies
Strategies combine several indicators and have more complex signal-generation processes. If you want to know more about the strategy, you should check out the app.
- EMA Strategy
- Parabolic Trader
- Hyper Scalper
- Big Extender
- Bollinger Stochastic Strategy
- Power Scalper
- Tri Trendmaster
- Pulse Precision
How We Tested
Here’s the critical part: Our crypto backtest consisted of two significant steps.
- In the initial phase of our analysis, we meticulously combed through the entire historical dataset for each cryptocurrency token. Our objective was to pinpoint every instance where the predefined criteria of a trading signal or strategy were met. This thorough process ensured we captured all relevant data points pivotal for our backtesting evaluation.
- Following identifying each relevant instance where our trading signals or strategies were triggered, we proceeded to the second critical step of our crypto backtest. In this phase, we closely examined whether the price of the cryptocurrency token experienced an increase (for every bullish signal) or decrease (for every bearish signal) of at least 2% within the subsequent 20-day period. This step was crucial in determining the success or failure of each signal, providing a concrete measure to assess the effectiveness of our strategies in actual market conditions.
More about Crypto Backtesting: Crypto Backtesting: Why You Have Been Waiting for This Game-Changer!
Crypto Backtest Results: A Diverse Spectrum of Success Rates
Alright, enough of the theoretical introduction. Here’s the part you have been waiting for. Below, you can find the success rates of each signal/trading strategy. Please also read through the following chapter, where we assess the results and more context.
Crypto Backtest Results — Single Indicators
| Signal / Strategy | Success Rate |
|---|---|
| MACD Bullish Crossover | 69.4% |
| MACD Bearish Crossover | 73.1% |
| RSI Overbought | 73.8% |
| RSI Oversold | 72.5% |
| EMA Bullish Crossover | 69.9% |
| EMA Bearish Crossover | 77.8% |
| Bollinger Band Buy | 70.6% |
| Bollinger Band Sell | 72.7% |
Crypto Backtest Results — Advanced Indicators
| Signal / Strategy | Success Rate |
|---|---|
| MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX | 69.9% |
| MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX | 73.1% |
| RSI Overbought + ADX | 74.3% |
| EMA Bearish Crossover | 79.5% |
| EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX | 71% |
| EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX | 72.7% |
| Bollinger Band Buy + ADX | 72.4% |
| Bollinger Band Sell + ADX | 72.5% |
Crypto Backtest Results — Strategies
| Signal / Strategy | Success Rate |
|---|---|
| EMA Strategy Bullish | 67.9% |
| EMA Strategy Bearis | 75% |
| Parabolic Trader Bullish | 75% |
| Parabolic Trader Bearish | 64.9% |
| Hyper Scalper Bullish | 96% |
| Hyper Scalper Bearish | 85.8% |
| Big Extender Bullish | 59.7% |
| Big Extender Bearish | 61.5% |
| Bollinger Stochastic Bullish | 72.5% |
| Bollinger Stochastic Bearish | 66% |
| Power Scalper Bullish | 68.6% |
| Power Scalper Bearish | 62.3% |
| Tri Trendmaster Bullish | 71.5% |
| Tri Trendmaster Bearish | 66.7% |
| Precision Pulse Bullish | 62.3% |
| Precision Pulse Bearish | 72.6% |
A Comprehensive Assessment Of The Results
Numbers don’t lie, and at CryptoKnowledge, we are obsessed with data and numbers. However, it is always important to add context to numbers to get a valuable understanding. Therefore, here are our thoughts and additional aspects about the results.
The Efficacy of Single Indicators on the Daily Timeframe
Our crypto backtests revealed a noteworthy trend: single indicators demonstrated remarkable performance on the daily timeframe, often surpassing many of the more sophisticated trading strategies. This finding is particularly intriguing as it suggests that simplicity when applied with precision, can yield highly effective results in the complex world of crypto trading.
The robust performance of these single indicators highlights their potential as reliable tools for traders seeking effective strategies without the intricacies of more complex systems.
The Marginal Impact of Adding ADX to Single Indicators
Incorporating the Average Directional Index (ADX) with single indicators was another strategy we explored with our crypto backtest. However, our data indicated that adding ADX to these indicators did not significantly enhance their performance.
This outcome suggests that while ADX is a valuable tool in specific contexts, its integration with single indicators in our strategies did not substantially improve their effectiveness in predicting market movements in the daily timeframe.
The Exceptional Performance of the Hyper Scalper Strategy
The Hyper Scalper strategy was a standout in our crypto backtest results, which yielded exceptionally high success rates. These “whopping” results underscore the potential of this strategy to provide traders with powerful insights and decision-making capabilities. The Hyper Scalper strategy’s success demonstrates its effectiveness in navigating the crypto market’s volatility and underscores the value of innovative approaches in trading strategy development.
The Variability of Strategy Performance Across Different Tokens
It is crucial to recognize that the success rates we observed are averages across nearly 200 cryptocurrency tokens.
This means that while some strategies show overall effectiveness, their performance can vary significantly from one token to another. This variation highlights the importance of understanding individual tokens’ specific characteristics and behaviors when applying these strategies. Traders should be aware that a strategy yielding impressive results may perform exceptionally well with particular tokens and less effectively with others, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches and continuous strategy evaluation.
In conclusion, our extensive backtesting analysis provides invaluable insights into the effectiveness of various trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market. By understanding these strategies’ nuances and specific applications, traders can make more informed decisions, adapt to market changes, and potentially enhance their trading success.
About CryptoKnowledge & the CryptoKnowledge App
At CryptoKnowledge, we pride ourselves on providing top-notch crypto data and tools. Our app is accessible on both the App Store and Play Store, featuring almost 200 crypto tokens and an array of functionalities like crypto signals, screeners, AI-based forecasts, and much more. Discover how we can elevate your trading experience, and download the app now!