Ethereum Backtest — The Most Extensive Analysis!

Welcome to the most extensive Ethereum Backtest data we’ve ever prepared. If you are looking for valuable input for your trading strategy, you’ve come to the right place. Our algorithms have analyzed 15 different trading signals — from basic indicators to sophisticated strategies and processed an extensive Ethereum backtest. Moreover, we did this Ethereum backtest on three chart timeframes: the daily, hourly, and 15-minute charts.

Continue reading to find out everything about the most promising but also some devastating crypto trading strategies and signals regarding Ethereum.

Ethereum Backtest Results — Overview

Before we dive into the details, here are some key highlights of the backtest results — clustered according to the chart timeframe.

Daily Chart:

  • Highest Best Probability: In the Daily Chart table, the ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ signal stands out with the best probability of 86.21%. This signal demonstrates strong potential for profit in longer-term trading scenarios.
  • Other Notable Signals: The ‘MACD Bullish Crossover’ and ‘MACD Bearish Crossover’ signals also have relatively high probabilities of 68.75% and 66.67%, respectively. These MACD-based signals suggest good performance in daily chart analysis.
  • Diverse Signals: The Daily Chart table includes a diverse set of signals, covering various technical indicators and trading strategies, providing traders with multiple options for decision-making.


  • Highest Best Probability: The ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ signal in the Hourly table has the highest best probability of 95.0%. This signal indicates strong potential for profit in shorter-term trading scenarios, such as hourly chart analysis.
  • Prominent Scalping Signals: The Hourly table features several scalping signals, including ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ and ‘Hyper Scalper Sell,’ which tend to perform well in shorter timeframes.
  • Higher Frequency of Signals: As expected, the Hourly table contains more signals than the Daily Chart, reflecting the higher frequency of trading opportunities in shorter timeframes.


  • Highest Best Probability: In the 15-Minute table, the ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ signal also leads with a best probability of 80.25%. This signal showcases its effectiveness even in the very short-term, 15-minute chart analysis.
  • Strong EMA Signals: The 15-Minute table includes EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossover signals like ‘EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX’ and ‘EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX’ with probabilities above 50%. These signals can be useful for intraday trading.
  • Intraday Focus: The 15-Minute table is geared towards intraday traders, providing signals tailored to the rapid price movements observed in shorter timeframes.

Ethereum Backtest Analysis

Results Daily (1D) Chart

Let’s start with the Ethereum backtest results for the daily chart.

A standout aspect is the impressive 100% best probability achieved by EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX, Hyper Scalper Buy, and Hyper Scalper Sell signals, though it’s worth noting these high probabilities are based on a relatively small number of detected signals (1 to 4 signals). This points to a potentially high effectiveness of these strategies in specific market conditions but also underscores the need for cautious interpretation due to the limited data.

Another exciting highlight is the EMA Bullish Crossover signal, which achieved an 85.71% best probability based on 14 detected signals, suggesting a more reliable and robust performance in the Ethereum market. Based on a more significant number of signals, the Bollinger Stochastic Buy and Big Extender Buy signals also show strong performances with probabilities of 75.0% and 72.73%, respectively.

SignalBest DayDetected SignalsSuccess Rate (%)
EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX84100.0
Hyper Scalper Buy11100.0
Hyper Scalper Sell12100.0
EMA Bullish Crossover91485.71
Bollinger Stochastic Buy103675.0
Big Extender Buy181172.73
Bollinger Bands Buy104468.18
Parabolic Trader Sell1966.67
Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX62864.29
Power Scalper Buy1016162.73
EMA Strategy Buy272462.5
EMA Bearish Crossover281361.54
EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX1560.0
EMA Strategy Sell92560.0
Power Scalper Sell224060.0
MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX293259.38
MACD Bullish Crossover295558.18
RSI Overbought183857.89
Parabolic Trader Buy53056.67
RSI Overbought + ADX182755.56
MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX52955.17
Bollinger Bands Sell19154.95
RSI Oversold21353.85
MACD Bearish Crossover55653.57
Bollinger Bands Sell + ADX15952.54
RSI Oversold + ADX21250.0
Big Extender Sell21050.0
Bollinger Stochastic Sell110450.0
Tri Trendmaster Buy1050.0
Tri Trendmster Sell1050.0

Results Hourly (1H) Chart

A notable aspect of the 1 hour Ethereum backtest results is the perfect 100% success rate achieved by the ‘Tri Trendmster Sell’ signal, albeit based on a very limited number of detected signals (3), which suggests a need for cautious interpretation due to the small sample size.

The ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ and ‘Hyper Scalper Sell’ signals also stand out with high probabilities of 95.0% and 81.82%, respectively, indicating a strong potential for these strategies in specific market scenarios. However, the ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ signal, in particular, is based on a more substantial number of detected signals (20), lending more credibility to its effectiveness.

On the other hand, our backtest shows that strategies like ‘Big Extender Buy’ and ‘Bollinger Stochastic Buy’ show probabilities of 68.42% and 65.43%, respectively, over a larger sample size, pointing to their more consistent performance in the Ethereum market.

The RSI Overbought strategies, both with and without ADX (Average Directional Index), also demonstrate noteworthy success rates, suggesting their utility in identifying potential trading opportunities in overbought market conditions.

The diversity of signals and their varied success rates highlight the complexity of Ethereum’s market dynamics and the importance of selecting appropriate trading strategies based on individual risk profiles and market conditions.

SignalBest DayDetected SignalsSuccess Rate (%)
Tri Trendmster Sell23100.0
Hyper Scalper Buy12095.0
Hyper Scalper Sell281181.82
Big Extender Buy1409568.42
Bollinger Stochastic Buy235065.43
RSI Overbought + ADX14615065.33
Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX3129464.97
RSI Overbought15022762.56
Power Scalper Buy6987062.3
Bollinger Bands Buy2660762.27
MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX7424259.92
Bollinger Bands Sell + ADX130656.21
Bollinger Bands Sell162055.65
MACD Bullish Crossover16053055.47
EMA Bullish Crossover16616655.42
Bollinger Stochastic Sell152755.41
EMA Bearish Crossover11516755.09
EMA Strategy Buy10129353.24
MACD Bearish Crossover1953052.64
EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX224252.38
Parabolic Trader Buy9419652.04
EMA Strategy Sell9130251.99
MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX1623050.87
Parabolic Trader Sell917950.84
EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX513850.0
RSI Oversold + ADX1415949.69
Big Extender Sell1010449.04
Power Scalper Sell1459348.74
RSI Oversold1420546.34
Tri Trendmaster Buy010

Want some more backtest posts? Check this out:
Bitcoin RSI Trading Examined: A 2023 Backtest Breakdown
Bitcoin Backtest: How Effective Was the MACD Strategy in 2023?

Results 15-Minutes (15M) Chart

Let’s move on to the Ethereum backtest results on the 15-minute chart.

A key highlight is the ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ and ‘Hyper Scalper Sell’ signals, showing remarkable success rates of 80.25% and 74.56%, respectively. These high probabilities, especially the ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ signal based on 81 detected signals, suggest a strong potential for these strategies in specific market conditions.

Another notable entry is the ‘Tri Trendmaster Buy’ signal, with a success rate of 72.73% based on 11 detected signals, indicating a decent success rate in certain scenarios. The ‘Tri Trendmster Sell’ signal also shows a solid performance with a 66.67% best probability, though it’s based on a smaller sample of 6 signals.

The table further includes various EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and Bollinger Bands strategies combined with the Average Directional Index (ADX), highlighting their varied success rates. For instance, ‘EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX’ and ‘Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX’ have probabilities of 64.17% and 61.01%, respectively, indicating their effectiveness in certain market conditions. These ADX combined strategies tend to show a higher success rate, suggesting that adding ADX could enhance signal reliability.

SignalBest DayDetected SignalsSuccess Rate (%)
Hyper Scalper Buy18180.25
Hyper Scalper Sell111474.56
Tri Trendmaster Buy1171172.73
Tri Trendmster Sell3666.67
EMA Bullish Crossover + ADX12412064.17
Bollinger Bands Buy + ADX2113161.01
Bollinger Bands Buy2236560.47
Bollinger Stochastic Buy6152060.13
Bollinger Stochastic Sell4189559.42
Bollinger Bands Sell + ADX10107558.51
Bollinger Bands Sell4233458.48
Big Extender Buy27330056.67
EMA Bearish Crossover + ADX24211556.52
MACD Bullish Crossover + ADX893554.87
Power Scalper Buy305227354.64
MACD Bearish Crossover + ADX9085653.86
EMA Strategy Sell73108453.41
RSI Overbought + ADX27345653.07
RSI Overbought23364452.95
MACD Bearish Crossover49202152.85
MACD Bullish Crossover394202252.27
EMA Bearish Crossover7369552.09
Parabolic Trader Buy36973251.91
EMA Bullish Crossover17769550.94
EMA Strategy Buy373109050.64
Parabolic Trader Sell1968150.51
Power Scalper Sell56180647.12
RSI Oversold + ADX4345445.59
Big Extender Sell7233345.05
RSI Oversold4363644.03

Ethereum Backtest — Summary

  • The ‘Hyper Scalper Buy’ signal consistently performs well across all three tables, indicating its versatility in different timeframes.
  • MACD-based signals, such as ‘MACD Bullish Crossover’ and ‘MACD Bearish Crossover,’ also demonstrate strong performance, especially in the Daily Chart.
  • The choice of the trading timeframe significantly impacts the best probabilities, with shorter timeframes like the 15-minute chart offering more frequent trading opportunities but potentially higher risk.
  • Traders should consider their trading style and risk tolerance when selecting signals from these tables, as the optimal strategy may vary depending on the chosen timeframe.

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