Cryptocurrency trading has become increasingly sophisticated. One key tool many traders utilize is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for crypto trading. However, we wanted to know how well this indicator performs. Therefore, we analyzed more than 190 crypto tokens and assessed the performance of a MACD crypto trading strategy.
Surprising Results
The results are surprising, to say the least. Based on more than 3 years of backtesting data, it turns out that selecting the right crypto tokens is one crucial element that defines the success of a MACD crypto trading strategy.
To make this more tangible, we put together this article. It provides a deep dive into the tokens that respond best and worst to the MACD crypto trading strategy. In this context, we analyzed both the MACD bullish crossover signal and the MACD bearish crossover. The entire backtest was based on the one-day (1D) timeframe, offering valuable insights for anyone looking to optimize their trading strategies using MACD for crypto.
The Best Performers with MACD for Crypto
In the realm of crypto trading, certain tokens have shown exceptional performance when analyzed through the lens of MACD for crypto. NPXS leads this category with a staggering 78.57% average probability of a bullish crossover, followed closely by BTT and AGIX. Other high performers like POLY, STRAT, and GTC also demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing MACD for crypto trading. These tokens have consistently followed through on bullish signals, making them ideal for traders relying on MACD for crypto decisions.
MACD Crypto Trading Strategy — The Top Performers
Let’s start with the bright side of the moon. The table below lists the top ten tokens regarding the MACD crypto trading strategy. First, we take a look at the bullish MACD crossover.
Top Performing Crypto Tokens – MACD Bullish Crossover
| Crypto Token | # of Signals | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pundi (NPXS) | 14 | 78.6% |
| BitTorrent (BTT) | 21 | 76.2% |
| SingularityNET (AGIX) | 12 | 75% |
| Polymath (POLY) | 12 | 75% |
| Stratis (STRAX) | 12 | 75% |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | 36 | 72.2% |
| Prom (PROM) | 14 | 71.4% |
| WAX (WAXP) | 28 | 71.3% |
| Money (UTK) | 38 | 71.1% |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | 24 | 70.1% |
Want more backtest data? Check out these articles:
Bitcoin Backtest: How Effective Was the MACD Strategy in 2023?
Crypto Backtest: The Most Extensive Analysis (15+ Trading Strategies)
Top Performing Crypto Tokens – MACD Bearish Crossover
We promised some surprising results. So here we go. The bearish MACD crossover showed some amazing performance for some tokens, with a success rate even above 90%. Illuvium topped the list with a whopping 92.3% success rate. However, also the other tokens in the list show some solid success rates above 80% or 70%.
| Crypto Token | # of Signals | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Illuvium (ILV) | 26 | 92.3% |
| Quicksand (QUICK) | 22 | 86.3% |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | 12 | 83.3% |
| Klaytn (KLAY) | 33 | 78.8% |
| Beta Finance (BETA) | 23 | 77.8% |
| AdEx (ADX) | 27 | 76.2% |
| NanoByte Token (NBT) | 21 | 76% |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | 25 | 76% |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | 28 | 75% |
| Terra Classic (LUNC) | 16 | 75% |
MACD Crypto Trading Strategy — The Worst Performers
Alright, it is time to switch to the dark side of the moon and discuss the worst-performing tokens when it comes to using the MACD for your crypto trading.
Worst Performing Crypto Tokens – MACD Bullish Crossover
Again, we start with a bullish MACD crossover. Here are the top 10 worst performers. One exciting aspect is that many of the tokens that performed poorly for the bullish crossover performed exceptionally well for the bearish crossover. Just take Klaytn (KLAY) or Osmosis (OSMO) as examples.
| Crypto Token | # of Signals | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Terra Classis (LUNC) | 15 | 46.7% |
| Decentraland (MANA) | 45 | 46.7% |
| Ooki Protocol(OOKI) | 22 | 45.5% |
| Klaytn (KLAY) | 32 | 43.7% |
| Atletico Madrid Fan Token (ATM) | 37 | 43.4% |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | 12 | 41.7% |
| OAX (OAX) | 10 | 40% |
| AC Milan Fan Token (ACM) | 43 | 39.5% |
| Illuvium (ILV) | 25 | 36% |
| NanoByte Token (NBT) | 20 | 35% |
Worst Performing Crypto Tokens – MACD Bullish Crossover
Finally, we take a look at the worst-performing tokens when it comes to the bearish MACD crossover. Conversely, to the previous list, we have some prominent crypto tokens for the first time. Besides Bitcoin (BTC), it contains Binance Coin (BNB) or Tron (TRX). Compared to the bullish crossover, the results are slightly better.
| Crypto Token | # of Signals | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 48 | 52.1% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | 47 | 51.1% |
| Uniswap (UNI) | 51 | 50.1% |
| Ardor (ARDR) | 61 | 50.1% |
| Hedera (HBAR) | 57 | 49.1% |
| Tron (TRX) | 59 | 47.5% |
| Bancor (BNT) | 53 | 47.2% |
| FTX Token (FTT) | 49 | 46.9% |
| Pundi X (NPXS) | 15 | 46.7% |
| Aragon (ANT) | 50 | 46% |
Understanding the Dynamics
Why do specific tokens respond more effectively to MACD signals in the crypto market? The questions are actually hard to answer since many factors influence success. Based on the results shown, it is evident that small tokens tend to lead the lists (except for the worst bearish performers). This might be linked to liquidity and the unique tokenomics of each cryptocurrency.
For instance, a token with high liquidity might exhibit more precise MACD signals due to more substantial trading volume, leading to more pronounced trends. Additionally, understanding each token’s inherent volatility and news sensitivity can further illuminate why some tokens align more closely with MACD indicators. This knowledge is invaluable for traders who rely on MACD for informed crypto trading decisions.
Practical Tips When Trading The MACD
Utilizing MACD for crypto trading extends beyond mere signal following. In this section, we delve into how to effectively integrate MACD signals with other market indicators for a more holistic trading strategy. It’s crucial to recognize that MACD, while powerful, isn’t infallible, especially with tokens that have historically shown a weaker correlation to these signals.
A blend of technical analysis tools – such as RSI (Relative Strength Index) or Bollinger Bands – alongside MACD can provide a more comprehensive market view. Additionally, considering the broader market trends and news can be pivotal. This balanced approach is key, mainly when dealing with less MACD-responsive tokens, ensuring that traders have a well-rounded strategy in the dynamic crypto market.
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